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Thursday, January 29, 2009

Q4 GDP Forecasts: Consensus 5.4% Decline

by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2009 11:44:00 PM

As a late night thread, here are some forecasts for Q4 GDP.

From the LA Times: Economy is going from bad to worse, reports show

Many economists think the economic output declined in the fourth quarter at an annual rate of 5% or more -- which would make it the worst quarter for the U.S. economy since 1982.

"It will be bad," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, a forecasting firm in Lexington, Mass. He estimated that the economy shrank at a 5.3% annual rate in the three months that ended Dec. 31.
"It's going to confirm what we already know, and that is that we're in a severe recession," said Ben Herzon, senior economist with forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers in St. Louis, who expects the report to show a decline of 5.5%.
From CNNMoney:
The gross domestic product is expected to have declined by an annual rate of 5.4% in the fourth quarter, according to a consensus of economist expectations from
Goldman Sachs most recent estimate is for real GDP to decline by 5.9%.

Northern Trust is forecasting a decline of 4.7%.

Looks like tomorrow will be interesting.