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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

New Home Sales in November

by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2008 10:01:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports, New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 407 thousand. This is the lowest sales rate since 1982.

New Home Sales Monthly Not Seasonally Adjusted Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Notice the Red columns for 2008. This is the lowest sales for November since 1981. (NSA, 28 thousand new homes were sold in November 2008, 27 thousand were sold in November 1981).

As the graph indicates, sales in 2008 are substantially worse than the previous years.

New Home Sales and Recessions The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 45 years. New Home sales have fallen off a cliff.

Sales of new one-family houses in November 2008 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 407,000, according to
estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

This is 2.9 percent below the revised October of 419,000 and is 35.3 percent below the November 2007 estimate of 629,000.
And one more long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

New Home Months of Supply and Recessions "Months of supply" is at 11.5 months.

The months of supply for October was revised up to 11.8 months - the ALL TIME RECORD!

For new homes, both sales and inventory are falling quickly.

And on inventory:

New Home Sales Inventory
seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 374,000. This represents a supply of 11.5 months at the current sales rate.
Inventory numbers from the Census Bureau do not include cancellations and cancellations are falling, but are still near record levels. Note that new home inventory does not include many condos (especially high rise condos), and areas with significant condo construction will have much higher inventory levels.

This is a another very weak report. I'll have some charts on existing home sales and more on new home sales later today ...