Friday, December 12, 2008

Forecaster: Negative Q4 GDP in China

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2008 03:38:00 PM

ISI's Ed Hyman is telling clients that he expects GDP growth in China at a 2% annual rate in Q3, and negative 1% in Q4 2008. This is far below most forecasts!

Hyman also lowered his Q4 U.S. GDP forecast to a 6% decline. Last month Goldman slashed their Q4 GDP forecast to minus 5%.

Q4 is definitely going to be an ugly quarter!

His forecast is not all negative: Although Hyman is forecasting a 4% U.S. GDP decline in Q1 2009, he thinks the economy will probably bottom mid-year 2009 (based on a substantial stimulus package from Obama), followed by a very sluggish recovery in the 2nd half of 2009, and slightly below trend growth in 2010. He thinks the stock market might have already bottomed.