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Monday, November 10, 2008

The UK Retail Recession

by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2008 08:49:00 PM

From the Financial Times: Plunge in UK retail sales and home deals (hat tip Jonathan)

High street sales suffered their sharpest annual fall in nearly four years in October and home purchases fell to a record low ... in a further sign of the UK economy’s deepening woes.
...
The BRC report says total retail sales were 0.1 per cent below their October 2007 level ... “A fall in the value of total sales is extremely rare,” said Helen Dickinson, head of retail at the consultancy KPMG.
...
The housing picture is no better, according to the RICS. The average number of completed sales per surveyor fell to 10.9 over the past three months, the weakest sales record since the survey began in 1978.
In the U.S., the year-over-year change in nominal retail sales went negative in September. The following graph shows the year-over-year change in nominal and real U.S. retail sales since 1993.

Year-over-year change in Retail Sales Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The Census Bureau reported that nominal retail sales decreased 1.0% year-over-year (retail and food services decreased 1.0%) in Septebmer, and real retail sales (adjusting with PCE) declined by 4.3% on a YoY basis.

Retail sales for October will be reported on Friday, and based on retailer reports, the numbers will be ugly.