by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2008 03:38:00 PM

From PricewaterhouseCoopers: PricewaterhouseCoopers Forecasts a Substantial Reduction in Hotel RevPAR in 2009

According to the PwC forecast, 2008 RevPAR will decrease by 0.8 percent, primarily due to a 3.7 percent decrease in occupancy, the highest annual decrease in occupancy since 2001. In 2009, demand is forecast to decrease by 2.0 percent, which, when coupled with a 1.6 percent increase in supply, is expected to further reduce occupancy to 58.6 percent, the lowest since 1971.
...
"The deteriorating outlook for the economy is impacting travel habits and spending, and hotels are expected to experience reduced occupancy levels, and to a lesser degree, some room rate erosion through 2009," said Scott Berman, principal and U.S. Leader of PricewaterhouseCoopers' Hospitality and Leisure practice.

Note: RevPAR is revenue per available room. The article also mentions ADR: average daily room rate.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the annual occupancy rate for the last 50 years. The data is from PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (1958 to 1986), and Smith Travel Research (1987 to 2007).

The PricewaterhouseCoopers forecast for 2008 and 2009 are in red. Note: The y-axis starts at 50% to better show the change.

Just more evidence of the coming slowdown in non-residential investment.