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Friday, October 17, 2008

Credit Crisis Indicators: More Progress

by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2008 01:03:00 PM

Here are a few indicators I'm watching for progress on the credit crisis.

  • The yield on 3 month treasuries: 0.79% up from up from 0.40% (BETTER)

  • The TED spread: 3.59 down from 4.11 yesterday (BETTER)

  • Activity in the Treasury's Supplementary Financing Program (SFP). This is the Treasury program to raise cash for the Fed's liquidity initiatives. If this program slows down borrowing, I think that would be a good sign.

    Here is a list of SFP sales. No announcement today have to wait for progress.

  • The A2P2 spread is 4.49 for Thrusday up from 4.4 for Wenesday. slightly worse.

  • Industry contacts. I'm tracking some financing deals there are being held up right now. If these deals complete that would be a good sign (I'll post something when this happens). No improvement yet.

    The two year swap spread from Bloomberg: 122.2 down from 138.38 BETTER

    I'll add a couple more indicators, but this is progress.

    Note: posting will be light today - I'm hiking in Zion. I hiked Angel's Landing this morning - awesome.