Tuesday, September 16, 2008

NAHB: Builder Confidence Near Record Low

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2008 01:00:00 PM

UPDATE: The NAHB has updated their site - the NAHB initially reported September at 17.

The NAHB reports that builder confidence was at 18 in Septemer, up slightly from August. Usually housing bottoms look like a "V"; this one will probably look more like an "L". (this refers to activity like starts and sales, but will probably also be apparent in the confidence survey).

Residential NAHB Housing Market Index Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Current sales activity and Traffic of Prospective Buyers increased slightly.

NAHB Press Release: Builder Confidence Rises In September

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose for the first time in seven months this September, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI gained two points to 18, rising from its record low of the previous two months.
...
“Nearly half of the builders in our September survey indicated that they expect to see a positive impact from the tax credit in their market areas,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. “Of those respondents, 20 percent said their market has already experienced some of this effect. Meanwhile, consumer confidence has risen and more households are saying that now is a good time to buy a home. All of these factors, along with the recent downward movements in mortgage rates, suggest that new-home sales will be stabilizing in the final quarter of the year.”