by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2008 05:40:00 PM

From the American Institute of Architects: More Negative Conditions for Architecture Billings Index

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While conditions have improved somewhat for three consecutive months, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) continues to point to unfavorable conditions for the nonresidential construction market. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI shows an approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the August ABI rating was 47.6, up slightly from the 46.8 mark in July (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). emphasis added

The key here is that the index fell off a cliff in early 2008, and that there is "an approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending". We should expect weaker non-residential structure investment in the second half of 2008 and throughout 2009.