In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Fed: Lending Standards Tighten, Demand Weakens

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2008 03:27:00 PM

From the Fed: The July 2008 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

In the current survey, large net fractions of domestic institutions reported having tightened their lending standards and terms on all major loan categories over the previous three months. In particular, the net fractions of banks that had tightened credit standards on consumer loans increased notably relative to the April survey. On net, considerable fractions of foreign institutions also had tightened their credit standards and terms on loans to businesses over the past three months, although these fractions were generally smaller than those reported in the April survey. Large net fractions of domestic and foreign respondents expected their banks to tighten credit standards on all major loan categories in the second half of this year, and smaller, though substantial, net fractions of respondents expected their banks to tighten standards in the first half of 2009. Finally, demand for loans from both businesses and households at domestic and foreign institutions reportedly weakened, on net, over the past three months.
emphasis added
CRE Loan Demand vs. Non-residential Investment Structures Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Of particular interest is the increase in tighter lending standards for Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loans. This graph compares investment in non-residential structure with the Fed's loan survey results for lending standards (inverted) and CRE loan demand.

Note that any reading below zero for loan demand means less demand than the previous quarter, but the good news is demand in July wasn't falling quite as fast as in April!

This is strong evidence of an imminent slump in CRE investment.

More charts here for residential mortgage, consumer loans and C&I.