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Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Roubini: Global Recession Watch

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2008 06:40:00 PM

From Nouriel Roubini: Global Recession Watch: Recoupling rather than Decoupling

[T]here is now fresh evidence that at least a dozen major economies and some emerging markets are at risk of a recessionary hard landing.
[W]hile we will not experience a global recession we will get close to one as the US will have a severe recession, Japan is entering one, a third of Europe will go into a recession, the rest of Europe will have a severe growth slowdown, the rest of the G-10 advanced countries is sharply slowing down and a few emerging market economies are entering a recession. And if the advanced economies are sharply slowing down or entering a recession the idea that China, India, the other BRICs and emerging markets can happily decouple from these recession or sharply slowing economies is far fetched.
This is an important key to the depth of the U.S. recession. As Professor Roubini notes, there are a number of key countries now either in, or flirting with, recession. If the global economy slows enough - causing U.S. exports to decline - we might start to see significant job losses in manufacturing, and then the current recession could be more severe than I currently expect.