Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes for June

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2008 10:45:00 AM

UPDATE: From scav (Thanks!), here are the two maps side by side with the same ranges ... click on map for larger image. (note: I didn't check these maps).

Philly Fed State Conincident Map

Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for June.

Compare these two maps.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This first map is the three month change for June 2008.

The U.S. is turning red.
Philly Fed State Conincident Map
Philly Fed State Conincident Map Dec 2007For comparisons, the second map is the three month change for December 2007.
The indexes increased in 13 states for the month, decreased in 27, and were unchanged in the remaining 10 (a one-month diffusion index of -28). For the past three months, the indexes have increased in 12 states, decreased in 36, and were unchanged in the other two (a three-month diffusion index of -48).
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityThis is a graph of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity.

I've added the current probable recession. Most of the U.S. was in recession in June based on this indicator.

Note: the Philly Fed calls some states unchanged with minor changes.

This is what a recession looks like based on the Philly Fed State coincident indexes.