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Thursday, July 17, 2008

JPM: Economy "Weak, likely to get weaker"

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2008 08:42:00 AM

From the WSJ: J.P. Morgan's Net Falls 53%. A few excerpts:

Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said he expects "the economic environment to continue to be weak -- and to likely get weaker -- and for the capital markets to remain under stress." He added that "since substantial risks still remain on our balance sheet, these factors will likely affect our business for the remainder of the year or longer."
[C]redit-loss provisions more than doubled to $3.45 billion but fell 22% from the first quarter. Home-equity charge-offs surged to 2.16% from 0.44%, while subprime-mortgage charge-offs quadrupled. Charge-offs for prime mortgages surged to 0.91% from 0.05%.
The [credit card] charge-off rate surged to 4.98% from 3.62% a year earlier and 4.37% in the first quarter.
From the conference call (hat tip Brian):
Analyst Mike Mayo: Can you elaborate more, you mentioned home equity might be a little bit better than you expected. But prime mortgage going from 48 basis points up to 91 base business points linked quarter, can you just elaborate more on what you're seeing there and why?

JPM: Mike, it's exactly the same risk factors and all the other things. It's high LTV, it's stated income, it's California , Florida , Arizona . I you agree with you they're track staggering numbers. It's just really hard for us to tell. Our current expectations of those losses can triple from here. We're prepared for that and we will reserve for that appropriately going forward.

Mayo: Prime mortgage losses could go from 91 basis points to 270 basis points?

JPM: Yes. We had 100 million a quarter and we could go to 300 million a quarter. Not next quarter. But if you look at current trends, maybe we're being overly conservative, that could be 300 million a quarter sometime in '09.
We are all subprime now!