by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2008 11:00:00 AM

From San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen: Risks and Prospects for the U.S. Economy. Excerpts:

[T]he key questions looking forward are: when will economic activity get back to normal? And when will inflationary pressures moderate? The answers to these questions depend, to a great extent, on how conditions in the housing, financial, and commodity markets evolve.

On housing:

Changes in housing prices are inextricably linked to household wealth, which in turn affects consumer spending, as well as prospects for housing construction. Unfortunately, it appears to me that there are at least three reasons for thinking that housing prices have further to fall. First, the ratio of house prices to rents—a kind of price-dividend ratio for housing—still remains quite high by historical standards, despite having fallen from its historical peak reached in early 2006. That suggests that further price declines may be needed to bring housing markets into balance. Second, inventories of unsold homes remain at elevated levels. This "excess supply" of available homes will put downward pressure on housing prices. Indeed, these inventories are likely to directly depress construction activity, since there is little point in building new homes when there is already a large backlog of unsold homes. Third, the futures market for house prices predicts further declines in a number of metropolitan areas this year. In particular, the Case-Shiller composite index for home prices shows a 15 to 20 percent year-over-year decline in the second half of this year. The bottom line is that construction spending and house prices seem likely to continue to fall well into 2009.
emphasis added

Her outlook for housing remains very negative. See Yellen's speech for comments on the financial markets and commodity prices.