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Thursday, July 03, 2008

BLS: Employment Flat Year over Year

by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2008 08:41:00 AM

From the BLS: Employment Situation Summary

This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year-over-year change in employment vs. recessions.
Employment Measures and Recessions Click on graph for larger image.

Although the unemployment rate was unchanged from last month, the rate has jumped sharply from a cycle low of 4.4% to 5.5%; a strong recession indicator.

The YoY change in employment is close to zero (the economy has added only 15 thousand jobs in the last year), also suggesting a recession.

The private sector (excluding government jobs) declined 242 thousand over the last year.

Note the current recession indicated on the graph is "probable", and is not official.

This is the sixth straight month of job losses.