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Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Fed's Beige book: "Noted slowing of economic activity"

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2008 02:05:00 PM

From the Fed's Beige Book:

Consumer spending was characterized as softening across most of the country, with some Districts reporting year-over-year declines in retail and/or auto sales.
...
Reports on real estate and construction were generally anemic for the residential sector; activity in the commercial sector has slowed.
On Real Estate and Construction:
Housing markets and home construction remained sluggish throughout most of the nation, though there were few signs of any quickening in the pace of deterioration. Ongoing weakness in housing markets, in general, was reported in almost all Districts. ... New residential construction was reported to have remained at depressed levels, and none of the Districts reported any pickup since the last report.

Declines or downward pressures in selling prices were specifically reported in the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts. In particular, New York and San Francisco noted some incipient price declines in areas that had previously shown resilience ...

Commercial real estate markets were generally reported to be steady or softening in most areas. ... sales of commercial properties were generally indicated to be sluggish, while prices were said to be under downward pressure. The Boston, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts all reported weakness in commercial real estate sales and prices.
Consumer spending and commercial real estate were two of the key areas that helped keep the U.S. economy out of recession for most of 2007. Now that these areas are weakening, this is more evidence that the U.S. economy is now in recession.