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Thursday, March 27, 2008

Fed's Lockhart: "Recovery may be delayed"

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2008 12:50:00 PM

Excerpts from Atlanta Fed President Dennis P. Lockhart: Current Economic Situation, Outlook, and Recent Actions

... the economy is in a slowdown that resembles past periods that were the leading edge of a recession.
Looking ahead, my forecast has been affected both by an economic slowdown that has been sharper than I had expected and the recurring spells of financial market turmoil. A few months ago our forecast at the Atlanta Fed saw growth slow in the first half of 2008, then pick up in the second half of the year. But it now appears to me that the contraction in housing and the dampening effects of financial turmoil on household and business spending could persist through the remainder of this year. The recovery in growth I had expected in the second half of this year may be delayed.
emphasis added
It appears Lockhart is still too optimistic on house prices:
I expect it will take much of the rest of the year for house prices to bottom out and financial markets to restore the necessary preconditions of stability—that is, confidence in asset values and confidence in transaction counterparties.