Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Merrill Lynch: House Prices May Fall 30%

by Calculated Risk on 1/22/2008 11:24:00 PM

From MarketWatch: Merrill Lynch says U.S. nationwide home prices may fall 30%

Merrill Lynch forecasts nationwide U.S. home prices could decline 25% to 30% over the next three years ...
And Bloomberg quotes Rosenberg: U.S. 2008 Growth Forecast Cut in Half by Merrill
``Rising unemployment, $6 trillion in lost housing wealth combined with slumping equity valuations, and the lack of participation from the baby boomers for the first time in three decades likely will result in the worst consumer recession since 1980,''
From the Fed's Flow of Funds report, household real estate assets totaled $20.99 trillion at the end of Q3 2007. So a 30% decline in prices would reduce "housing wealth" by about $6 trillion (Merrill's number).