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Monday, January 28, 2008

December New Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 1/28/2008 10:00:00 AM

According to the Census Bureau report, New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604 thousand. Sales for November were revised down to 634 thousand, from 647 thousand, and numbers for October were revised up slightly.

New Home SalesClick on Graph for larger image.

Sales of new one-family houses in December 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000 ... This is 4.7 percent below the revised November rate of 634,000 and is 40.7 percent below the December 2006 estimate of 1,019,000.
New Home Sales
The Not Seasonally Adjusted monthly rate was 42,000 New Homes sold. There were 71,000 New Homes sold in December 2006.

December '07 sales were the lowest December since 1994 (40,000).
New Home Sales PricesThe median and average sales prices are generally declining. Caution should be used when analyzing monthly price changes since prices are heavily revised and do not include builder incentives.

The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2007 was $219,200; the average sales price was $267,300.
New Home Sales InventoryThe seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 495,000.

The 495,000 units of inventory is slightly below the levels of the last year.

Inventory numbers from the Census Bureau do not include cancellations - and cancellations are once again at record levels. Actual New Home inventories are probably much higher than reported - my estimate is about 100K higher.
New Home Sales Months of InventoryThis represents a supply of 9.6 months at the current sales rate.

This is another VERY weak report for New Home sales. Most revisions continue to be down. This is the fifth report after the start of the credit turmoil, and, as expected, the sales numbers are very poor.

I expect these numbers to be revised down too. More later today on New Home Sales.