Friday, December 28, 2007

November New Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2007 10:00:00 AM

According to the Census Bureau report, New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 647 thousand. Sales for October were revised down to 711 thousand, from 728 thousand. Numbers for August and September were also revised down.

New Home SalesClick on Graph for larger image.

Sales of new one-family houses in November 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 647,000 ... This is 9.0 percent below the revised October rate of 711,000 and is 34.4 percent below the November 2006 estimate of 987,000.
New Home Sales
The Not Seasonally Adjusted monthly rate was 46,000 New Homes sold. There were 71,000 New Homes sold in November 2006.

November '07 sales were the lowest November since 1995 (46,000).
New Home Sales PricesThe median and average sales prices are generally declining. Caution should be used when analyzing monthly price changes since prices are heavily revised and do not include builder incentives.

The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2007 was $239,100; the average sales price was $293,300.
New Home Sales InventoryThe seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 505,000.

The 505,000 units of inventory is slightly below the levels of the last year.

Inventory numbers from the Census Bureau do not include cancellations - and cancellations are once again at record levels. Actual New Home inventories are probably much higher than reported - my estimate is about 100K higher.
New Home Sales Months of InventoryThis represents a supply of 9.3
months at the current sales rate.


This is another VERY weak report for New Home sales. All revisions continue to be down. This is the fourth report after the start of the credit turmoil, and, as expected, the sales numbers are very poor.

I expect these numbers to be revised down too. More later today on New Home Sales.