by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2007 10:59:00 AM

It's been some time since I made my prediction in March: Commercial Real Estate Bust?

This might be a story later this year: the start of a commercial real estate bust.

Now from Mathew Padilla at the O.C. Register: Commercial real estate loans dipped in Q3

The Mortgage Bankers Association said today commercial real estate loans nationwide fell 4% for all types of real estate in the third quarter vs. a year ago and 30% vs. the second quarter of this year.

See Matt's post for more details.

Also from Nouriel Roubini: The Next Shoe to Drop in the Credit Meltdown: Commercial Real Estate and Its Massive Forthcoming Losses

This is chart is a repeat from earlier this week: From Countrywide's 8-K SEC filing on Tuesday, here is a table that included the company's commercial real estate loan pipeline (hat tip idoc).

Click on graph for larger image.

In October, Countrywide had $752 Million commercial real estate loans in their pipeline, compared to $1,824 million last October and $1,323 million in September.

So Q3 was off 30% from Q2 (according to the MBA) and Q4 is off to a very weak start based on the Countywide October numbers. It looks like the CRE slowdown has started.