Thursday, November 01, 2007

Advance Q3 MEW Estimate

by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2007 10:00:00 PM

Based on the Q3 GDP data from the BEA, my advance estimate for Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) is approximately $520 Billion (SAAR) or 5.1% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI). This would be slightly higher than the Q2 estimates, from the Fed's Dr. Kennedy, of $494.4 Billion (SAAR), or 4.9% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI).

The actual Q3 data for MEW is released after the Flow of Funds report is available from the Fed (scheduled for December 6th for Q3).

Advance Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Estimate Click on graph for larger image.

This graph compares my advance MEW estimate (as a percent of DPI) with the MEW estimate from Dr. James Kennedy at the Federal Reserve. The correlation is pretty high (0.90, R2 = 0.81) but there are differences quarter to quarter. This does suggest that MEW was at about the same level in Q3 as Q2. We will have to wait until September to know for sure.

MEW will probably decline precipitously in the Q4 2007, with a combination of tighter lending standards and falling house prices. The impact of less equity extraction on consumer spending is still being debated, but I believe a slowdown in consumption expenditures is likely.

Here are the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) Kennedy-Greenspan estimates of home equity extraction through Q2 2007, provided by James Kennedy based on the mortgage system presented in "Estimates of Home Mortgage Originations, Repayments, and Debt On One-to-Four-Family Residences," Alan Greenspan and James Kennedy, Federal Reserve Board FEDS working paper no. 2005-41.

Kennedy Greenspan Mortgage Equity Withdrawal For Q2 2007, Dr. Kennedy calculated Net Equity Extraction as $494.4 Billion (SAAR), or 4.9% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI).

This graph shows the MEW results, both in billions of dollars quarterly (not annual rate), and as a percent of personal disposable income.