Friday, October 05, 2007

September Employment Report

by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2007 08:46:00 AM

From MarketWatch: Job growth rebounds to 110,000 in September

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 110,000 in September, including 73,000 in the private sector, very close to expectations of 113,000 total payrolls.

Payroll growth in July and August was revised higher by 118,000, the government said. Instead of falling by 4,000 in August, payrolls rose 89,000 after revisions. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7%, the highest in a year. ...

The annual benchmark revision will lower the level of employment by an estimated 297,000 as of March 2007. ... The actual revision occurs in February, but a preliminary estimate is given in October.
Here is the BLS report. Note that the decline in employment in August has been revised away. The unemployment rate increased slightly again and is now at 4.7%.

Year over year change in employmentClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in nonfarm employment. This shows the weak - but not recessionary - job growth over the last year.

Residential Construction Employment
Residential construction employment declined 20,000 in September, and including downward revisions to previous months, is down 191.5 thousand, or about 5.6%, from the peak in March 2006. (compare to housing starts off 30%+).

Note the scale doesn't start from zero: this is to better show the change in employment.

The initial benchmark revision shows the loss of an additional 8,000 construction jobs, but the initial report doesn't breakout residential construction.

Overall this is a stronger than expected report. Even the projected downward revision (that will be included in the January report) is smaller than expected.