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Monday, October 08, 2007

Credit Suisse: "Time to Buckle Up"

by Calculated Risk on 10/08/2007 12:18:00 PM

In a research note released today, titled "Time to Buckle Up the Seat Belts", Credit Suisse argues that consumer spending was weaker than expected in September, and they believe this may be "a sign of what's to come" in the 4th quarter.

In an earlier post, I noted that growth in real consumer spending was around 3% annualized in Q3 using the two month estimate (based on the first two months of the quarter). Usually I go with the two month estimate, however I think Q3 2007 might be an exception and real PCE growth could have slowed sharply in September.

UPDATE: From Ryder Press Release:

Economic conditions have softened considerably in more industries beyond those related to housing and construction.
On a related note, from MarketWatch: Ryder lowers quarterly, yearly profit outlook (hat tip Al, Brian)
... the truck leasing company warned that soft demand for its commercial rentals, lower used-vehicle prices and higher costs would yield lower third-quarter earnings than earlier forecast.

The company blamed a slowdown in the housing and construction industries for the lower outlook, a situation that Ryder said was likely to persist through the end of the year.
Though transportation fundamentals have been weak for the last couple of quarters, Ryder's case is surprising because it's been considered to have a more stable outlook as most of their business is contractual, said Todd Fowler, analyst with Keybanc Capital Markets.