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Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Those Wacky NAR Housing Forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2007 08:54:00 PM

The comedians at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) presented another forecast today for existing home sales in 2007. Their current forecast is for sales to be 5.92 million in 2007. This is compared to their original forecast from Dec '06 of 6.4 million units in 2007. (My forecast was for existing home sales to be between 5.6 and 5.8 million units).

The NAR forecast is still way too high, even after seven straight months of negative revisions. Luckily for the NAR, they still have three more downward revisions to go.

With a sharp slowdown in 2007 sales, it is amusing to look at the headlines from the NAR. Enjoy!

December 11, 2006: Existing-Home Sales In 2007 Expected To Recover From Cyclical Low

January 10, 2007: Gradual Rise Projected for Home Sales

February 07, 2007: Existing-Home Sales To Improve, With Later Recovery For New Homes

March 13, 2007: Housing Recovery Likely This Year, But Timing Isn't Clear

April 11, 2007: Tighter Lending Standards Good For Housing, But Will Dampen Sales

May 09, 2007: Housing Forecast Changed Slightly Due to Impact From Tighter Lending

June 06, 2007: Home Sales Projected to Fluctuate Narrowly With a Gradual Upturn

July 11, 2007: Home Prices Expected to Recover in 2008 As Inventories Decline

August 08, 2007: Near-Term Home Sales to Hold in Modest Range

September 11, 2007: Mortgage Problems to Dampen Home Sales in The Short Term