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Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Goldman Sachs on Housing

by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2007 06:53:00 PM

In a research note today (no public link), GS forecast house prices to decline 7% in 2007, and another 7% in 2008 (based on the Case-Shiller index). They believe the OFHEO index will show smaller price declines.

In addition, GS forecasts New Home sales to drop to 650K in Q1 '08, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This is even below the BofA forecast of 700K for later this year.

For existing homes, GS forecasts 5.25 million SAAR in Q4 '07 and a lower rate in '08.

I'll try to get permission to excerpt from the research note.