Sunday, July 01, 2007

The Q2 Consumer Slowdown

by Calculated Risk on 7/01/2007 02:49:00 PM

There is barely a mention of the Q2 consumer spending slowdown in the weekend papers. One of the few who noticed was the ever reliable Asha Bangalore at Northern Trust: Core Inflation Is In “Comfort Zone,” Q2 Consumer Spending Should Be Noticeably Slow

The April-May data of consumer spending and a conservative assumption for June point to about a 1.7% annualized increase in consumer outlays during the second quarter. Consumer spending grew at an annual rate of 4.2% in each of the prior two quarters. This bodes poorly for headline GDP in the second quarter, after a 0.7% increase in the first quarter.
Is this just a one quarter slowdown? Or is this the beginning of a housing related slump in consumer spending?