by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2007 05:43:00 PM

John Spence as MarketWatch reports: Economist cuts housing forecasts

The chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders on Wednesday ... lowered his forecasts for new construction as the market has weakened further ...

"It's fair to say the performance of the housing market during the first half [of 2007] and the outlook for the second half and next year are a lot weaker than six months ago," said David Seiders ...

His outlook for 2007 single-family housing starts is now 9% lower than it was at the beginning of the year, while his 2008 forecast has been slashed by 15%, Seiders said on a conference call. His forecast is for housing starts of 1.42 million this year and 1.45 million in 2008.

This means Seiders expects starts to average about 1.38 million per month, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, for the 2nd half of '07. That is too much production, and I expect starts to fall even further.