by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2007 11:18:00 AM

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has cut their 2007 forecast - again. From the NAR: Home Sales Projected to Fluctuate Narrowly With a Gradual Upturn

Existing-home sales are projected to total 6.18 million in 2007.

In February the NAR forecast sales would fall to 6.44 million. In April they revised their forecast to 6.34 million (a decline of 2.2% from 2006). Their new forecast is a decline of 4.6%. Still too high, but I suppose if they revise their forecast down 2% every couple of months, they might be close by the end of the year!

Also from AP: Bush Administration Lowers Its Forecast for Economic Growth This Year

Under the administration's new forecast, gross domestic product, or GDP, will grow by 2.3 percent as measured from the fourth quarter of last year to the fourth quarter of this year. That's down from a previous projection of 2.9 percent.
...
"So it is just not quite clear where we are in terms of the housing market, whether it has bottomed out," Edward Lazear, chairman of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers told reporters.

Sorry, but it is "quite clear" that housing has not bottomed yet. Of course Lazear has never demonstrated an understanding for housing. He thought the worst was over last November:

"The housing market, as you know, it has been hit, I think, harder than most of us had expected. Most forecasters were expecting a slower decline. What that probably signals is that the future will not be as negative as it otherwise would have been because we've probably had much of the decline that we're expecting to have."
Edward Lazear, Q&A Nov 21, 2006, chairman of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers