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Sunday, June 17, 2007

Housing: "immovable glut of supply" meets "decline in demand"

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2007 01:41:00 PM

Rex Nutting at MarketWatch previews the coming week: Housing market hasn't bottomed yet

The depression in the home building sector is no longer news; even Federal Reserve officials seem resigned to months if not years of weak activity.
The data in the coming week "will be a sobering reminder that the housing market has yet to bottom out," said Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault, economists for Global Insight ...
There is no way the news will be "good" for housing. If starts decline - as expected - that means more weakness in the housing sector. And if starts unexpectedly increase that just means more supply and more weakness to come.
Few analysts see any bottom in home building.
It might be hard to remember, but the consensus view at the end of '06 was that housing would bottom in Q1 or Q2 of '07. Oops.