by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2007 01:13:00 PM

By popular demand, here is a graph of Starts and Completions with Recessions.

Click on graph for larger image.

An optimist might argue that we should already be in a recession based on previous housing slumps - so if the worst is over for this housing slump, a soft landing is very possible. Of course I think starts will fall further - perhaps to the 1.1 million SAAR level.

The WSJ housing story led with this sentence:

Home construction unexpectedly rose during April, making a surprise increase despite bloated inventories and tighter credit for subprime borrowers ...

And yes, fundamentals like "bloated inventories" and less demand, do matter.