by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2007 05:59:00 PM

"The main take away from these jobless claims data is that there is a significant weakness developing in the labor market which will be validated or refuted by the February employment report."
Asha Bangalore
Northern Trust Vice President and Economist, Mar 1, 2007

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1990 (for more on claims, see Dr. Bangalore's commentary today).

I think the level of concern for the 4-week moving average is around 350K (dashed line on graph).

Last week I wrote about claims: "there is nothing indicating a significant slowing of the labor market". And just one more week of typically noisy claim data hasn't changed my view, but I am watching these numbers more closely right now.