by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2007 08:09:00 PM

Rex Nutting at MarketWatch reports: Big downward revision to GDP coming

The U.S. economy was growing much slower in the fourth quarter of 2006 than the government's first estimate of 3.4%, economists say.

Instead of fairly robust 3.4% annualized growth, the government's next estimate will probably be closer to 2.2%, according to median forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Instead of bouncing back, the economy would have turned in its third quarter in a row of below-trend growth.

The first quarter also looks fairly tepid, with weak retail sales, falling homebuilding and growing signs that business investment isn't picking up the slack.

This has been discussed at MacroBlog, The Big Picture and by Nouriel Roubini.