by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2006 02:38:00 PM

From the WSJ: Studies Find Higher Loan Delinquencies Stemming From 2005's Lending Boom

To be sure, mortgage delinquencies remain low by historical standards. But experts worry the trend could worsen. With the housing market cooling and interest rates rising, "by the end of the year you could see a substantial increase in delinquency rates" for mortgages, says Thomas Lawler, a former Fannie Mae economist and now a private housing consultant.

Mortgage delinquencies historically peak around three years after loans are made, which means some of the more aggressive loans made last year might experience their biggest problems in 2008. However, some borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages could see problems sooner. Others, who took out exotic mortgages such as interest-only loans and option ARMs that hold down monthly payments in their early years, could run into trouble later, when payments reset. Still, there are early signs that even some of these non-traditional mortgage loans are starting to be squeezed by rising interest rates.

Borrowers who took out mortgages in the past two years are likely to be more vulnerable should home prices fall because they could wind up owing more than their home is worth. Twenty-nine percent of borrowers who took out mortgages last year have no equity in their homes or owe more than their house in worth, according to a study completed this year by Christopher L. Cagan, director of research and analytics for First American Real Estate Solutions, a unit of First American Corp. That compares with 10.6 percent of those who took out loans in 2004.

With so many homeowners with so little equity, Bernanke's "orderly" housing slowdown could get a lot worse!