Thursday, September 15, 2005

Prediction August Trade Deficit: Petroleum

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2005 07:24:00 PM

Here are the forecasted August oil numbers using the same model (described here). The ERPP (Energy Related Petroleum Products) trade numbers for August are forecast to be:

Forecast: Total NSA ERRP Imports: $24.2 Billion

Imports SA: $23.5 Billion (seasonal factor estimated at 0.972 for Aug)
Exports SA: $2.4 Billion
Balance ERPP: $21.1 Billion

I am forecasting a record average price per barrel of $52.94 compared to July's record of $49.03.

Imports SA and NSA will set records in August (again). The $21.1 Billion Petroleum deficit compares to the SA July deficit of $18.48 Billion. It appears oil imports will add approximately $2.6 Billion to the SA August trade deficit.

It is highly probable that the SA August Trade deficit will break the record deficit set in February of $60.4 Billion.