by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2005 02:55:00 PM

CNN had an online poll today on the cause of rising gas prices. Without getting into the flaws of online polls (a self selecting sample), this poll shows several other problems. First the results:

Q: What do you think is the main cause of rising gas prices?

Cause	percent	votes
Hurricanes	4%	6738 votes
Lack of refining capacity	21%	33619 votes
Price gouging	65%	104096 votes
Other market forces	10%	16527 votes

My first problem with this poll is the lack of a clear time period being considered. The primary reason for the price spike in the last month was the loss of refining capacity due to damage from hurricane Katrina. For the month of September, an answer of "hurricanes" or "lack of refining capacity" would be reasonable.

However gas prices have been rising for some time. This wasn't due to hurricanes or the lack of refining capacity. Instead this was due primarily to market forces.

Regardless of the time frame used, "price gouging" (the most popular answer) is incorrect.