Saturday, August 13, 2005

Prediction July Trade Deficit: Oil

by Bill McBride on 8/13/2005 06:32:00 PM

Gen'l Glut pointed out last month that another jump in oil imports would come in July. It looks like he is correct. Here are the forecasted July oil numbers using the same model (described here). The ERPP (Energy Related Petroleum Products) trade numbers for July are forecast to be:

Forecast: Total NSA ERRP Imports: $21.8 Billion

Imports SA: $21.1 Billion (seasonal factor estimated at 0.965 for July)
Exports SA: $2.2 Billion
Balance ERPP: $18.9 Billion

I am forecasting a record average price per barrel of $49.71 compared to June's $44.40 and the previous record of $44.76 in April.

Imports SA and NSA will set records in July. And the projected SA deficit of $18.9 Billion will shatter the previous seasonally adjusted record oil deficit of $17.9 Billion set last November.

This compares to the SA June deficit of $17.76 Billion. It appears oil imports will add approximately $1.2 Billion to the July trade deficit.