Tuesday, July 12, 2005

May Trade Deficit Prediction

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2005 06:39:00 PM

Once again, I've only modeled Oil and China, although I've added exports for Oil. Hopefully I will add more in the future. Here is a review of last month's predictions.

PROJECTIONS:
I: For petroleum, I project that NSA petroleum trade imports will be $18.7 Billion, down from $18.9 Billion in April. Including petroleum exports and adjusting for seasonal effects, the SA oil balance for May is projected at $15.5 Billion. This compares to $17.2 Billion for April.

II: For China, I project (see bottom) a NSA deficit of $15.5 Billion for May compared to $14.7 Billion in April. SA this is $16.1 Billion vs. $15.5 Billion for April.

III. OVERALL: I haven't developed a method for predicting the deficit for other countries, but based on Oil and China I think the deficit in May might improve slightly from April's deficit of $57 Billion. Oil will be about $1.7 Billion less in May (than April) and China approximately $0.6 Billion more.

My Guess (not enough work to call it a projection / estimate): $56.5 Billion Deficit.

NOTE: I expect June to be significantly worse than May.


CHINA: The following is the estimate for trade with China based on this methodology.

CHINA TRADE BALANCE: Table numbers in Billions $

NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED


MONTH NSA Balance NSA Exports NSA Imports
February -$13.9 $3.08 $16.95
March -$12.9 $3.3 $16.21
April -$14.7 $3.4 $18.12
May -$15.5(est) $3.4(est) $18.9(est)


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (all estimates)

MONTH SA Balance SA Exports SA Imports
February -$18.1 $3.08 $21.19
March -$15.1 $3.3 $18.42
April -$15.5 $3.4 $18.88
May -$16.1(est) $3.4(est) $19.5(est)