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Wednesday, April 06, 2005

World Bank: Economic Recovery Globally Has 'Peaked'

by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2005 11:04:00 AM

WSJ Online:

The World Bank warned Wednesday that the global economic recovery has "peaked" and said the severity of the coming slowdown will depend on the extent to which foreign investors lose their nerve about buying U.S.-dollar-denominated assets.
And more:
"The global economy is at a turning point," said Francois Bourguignon, the bank's chief economist, in a foreword to the report. "Growth has peaked, and pressures to address global imbalances are growing, exposing important risks facing both developed and developing countries as the needed adjustments occur."

The bank said its best-case scenario calls for a mild slowdown in global economic growth over the next few years. The annual growth rate of gross domestic product, 3.8% in 2004, is likely to drop to 3.1% this year and hover about that level through 2007. Among developing countries, the rate is likely to slip from 6.6% last year to 5.7% in 2005, and 5.2% in 2006.

Still, the bank said, a new global recession is a possibility. "A reduction in the pace at which central banks are accumulating dollars, a weakening in investors' appetite for risk, or a greater-than-anticipated pickup in inflationary pressures could cause interest rates to rise farther than projected, providing a deeper-than-expected slowdown or even a global recession," it said.

The R word is starting to raise its ugly head. I'll be back to the Mug's game soon.