by Bill McBride on 3/08/2014 09:31:00 AM
Saturday, March 08, 2014
The key report this week is February retail sales on Thursday.
No economic releases scheduled.
7:30 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February.
10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the BLS.
This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.
The number of job openings (yellow) were up 10.5% year-over-year in December compared to December 2012, and Quits increased in December and were up about 12% year-over-year.
10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for January. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
2:00 PM ET: the Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for February.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 330 thousand from 323 thousand.
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for February will be released.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.4% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.6% from January 2013.
The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.2% in February, and to increase 0.1% ex-autos.
10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for January. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories.
8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in prices.
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for March). The consensus is for a reading of 81.8, up from 81.6 in February.
Friday, March 07, 2014
by Bill McBride on 3/07/2014 09:25:00 PM
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for March 7, 2014.
Changes and comments from surferdude808:
Not many changes to report this week to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. After two removals, the institution count and asset total dropped to 564 and $180.1 billion. A year ago, the list held 805 institutions with assets of $296.4 billion.
Totals have declined for the past 67 consecutive weeks.
Removals include an action termination against Bank of Hampton Roads, Virginia Beach, VA ($1.6 billion Ticker: HMPR) and a merger for Park Cities Bank, Dallas, TX ($406 million). Next week should be quiet as well as the OCC likely will not release its update until March 21st.
by Bill McBride on 3/07/2014 04:53:00 PM
Note: The FHA has stopped releasing REO inventory on a monthly basis. I was able to obtain data for February as show on the graph below.
I'm still trying to get Quarter ending data from the FHA.
In their Q4 SEC filing, Fannie reported their Real Estate Owned (REO) increased to 103,229 single family properties, up from 100,941 at the end of Q3.
Freddie reported their REO increased to 47,308 in Q4, up from 44,623 at the end of Q3.
The FHA reported their REO decreased to 25,306 in February 2014, down from 32,226 in October 2013.
The combined Real Estate Owned (REO) for Fannie, Freddie and the FHA decreased to 175,843, down from 180,286 at the end of Q3 2013 (note: FHA data is not for Quarter end). The peak for the combined REO of the F's was 295,307 in Q4 2010.
This following graph shows the REO inventory for Fannie, Freddie and the FHA.
Click on graph for larger image.
This is only a portion of the total REO. There is also REO for private-label MBS, FDIC-insured institutions (declined in Q4), VA and more. REO has been declining for those categories.
REO for Fannie and Freddie has increased a little over the last two quarters and is still elevated, but REO for the FHA is apparently back to normal levels.
by Bill McBride on 3/07/2014 01:19:00 PM
Payroll employment is getting very close to the pre-recession peak.
Of course this doesn't include population growth and new entrants into the workforce (the workforce has continued to grow), but reaching new highs in employment will be a significant milestone in the recovery.
The graph below shows both total non-farm payroll (blue, left axis) and private payroll (red, right axis) since January 2007. Both total non-farm and private payroll employment peaked in January 2008.
The dashed line is the pre-recession peak.
Click on graph for larger image.
The pre-recession peak for total non-farm payroll employment was 138.365 million. Currently there are 137.699 million total non-farm payroll jobs, or 666 thousand fewer than the pre-recession peak.
At the recent annual pace (about 2.2 million jobs added per year), total non-farm payroll will be at a new high in June 2014.
The pre-recession peak for private payroll employment was 115.977 million. Currently there are 115.848 million total non-farm payroll jobs, or 129 thousand fewer than the pre-recession peak. It seems likely private sector employment that will be at a new high in March.
by Bill McBride on 3/07/2014 12:20:00 PM
The Department of Commerce reported this morning:
[T]otal January exports of $192.5 billion and imports of $231.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $39.1 billion, up from $39.0 billion in December, revised. January exports were $1.2 billion more than December exports of $191.3 billion. January imports were $1.3 billion more than December imports of $230.3 billion.The trade deficit was close to the consensus forecast of $39.0 billion.
The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through January 2014.
Click on graph for larger image.
Imports and exports increased in January.
Exports are 15% above the pre-recession peak and up 3% compared to January 2013; imports are at the pre-recession peak, and up about 1% compared to January 2013.
The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through January.
The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
Oil averaged $90.21 in January, down from $91.34 in December, and down from $94.08 in January 2013. The petroleum deficit has generally been declining and is the major reason the overall deficit has declined since early 2012.
The trade deficit with China was mostly unchanged at $27.84 billion in January, from $27.79 billion in January 2013. A majority of the trade deficit is related to China.
Overall it appears trade is picking up a little.