by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2026 08:11:00 AM

The ICE Home Price Index (HPI) is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales.

From ICE (Intercontinental Exchange):

Annual home price growth ended 2025 at just +0.7% — the smallest calendar-year increase since 2011, when prices fell by 2.9%.

With income growth outpacing home price gains and 30-year mortgage rates starting 2026 at 6.15%, housing affordability is at its best level in nearly four years.

At current prices and rates, purchasing an average-priced home with 20% down and a 30-year loan requires a monthly payment of $2,093 — 27.8% of median household income. That’s down from $2,256 (31.1%) at the start of 2025.

According to Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research for Intercontinental Exchange:

“Improved affordability and income growth have provided a much-needed boost to housing market dynamics, even as regional trends and property types show significant variation. The Northeast and Midwest have emerged as clear leaders, while condos continue to face headwinds in most markets.”

Drilling down into regional and property type specifics:

• Regional Standouts: New Haven, CT led all markets with an impressive 8.6% price growth, followed by Syracuse, NY (+6.8%) and Hartford, CT (+6.25%). Notably, 24 of the 25 fastest-appreciating markets were in the Northeast and Midwest.

• Price Declines: On the flip side, 35 of the 100 largest U.S. markets saw home prices decline in 2025 — up from just 10 in 2024 and marking the largest share of declines since 2011.

• Property Type Trends: Single-family homes outperformed condos, with prices rising 1.0% compared to a 1.7% decline for condos. Condos underperformed in 90% of markets nationwide.

As ICE mentioned, "regional trends ... show significant variation".  The Northeast and Midwest are saw solid house price gains in 2025, whereas cities in the South and West have been leading the way in inventory increases and price declines (especially Florida and Texas).