by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2026 10:54:00 AM

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 311 thousand.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Click on graph for larger image.

Heavy truck sales were at 311 thousand SAAR in December, down from 336 thousand in November, and down 32.5% from 461 thousand SAAR in December 2024.

Sales were down 15.3% in 2025 compared to annual sales in 2024.

Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession, and sales have collapsed recently.