by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2025 08:21:00 AM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.

In October 2025, total U.S. rail carloads were down a fraction (-0.03%) from October 2024, and 11 of the 20 major rail carload categories posted year-over- year declines. ...

U.S. rail intermodal shipments fell 3.0% in October 2025 from October 2024—the third year-over-year decline in the past five months for intermodal and the steepest percentage drop since August 2023. Historically, October is one of the strongest months for intermodal traffic: in the 25 years from 2000 to 2024, it was among the top three months for average weekly intermodal volume in 20 of those years. It won’t be this year: October’s weekly average of 273,747 units has already been surpassed by four other months.
emphasis added

The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI) measures seasonally adjusted month-to-month rail intermodal shipments plus carloads excluding coal and grain. As such, it is a useful gauge of underlying freight demand tied to industrial production and consumer goods flows. The index fell 1.4% in October 2025 from September 2025, its sixth decline in the past seven months. The index is 1.5% below its level from a year earlier.