by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2025 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 652 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up.

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 652,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.6 percent below the June 2025 rate of 656,000, and is 8.2 percent below the July 2024 rate of 710,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales were below pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply was unchanged in July at 9.2 months from 9.2 months in June.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July 2025 was 499,000. This is 0.6 percent below the June 2025 estimate of 502,000, and is 7.3 percent above the July 2024 estimate of 465,000.

This represents a supply of 9.2 months at the current sales rate. The months' supply is virtually unchanged from the June 2025 estimate of 9.2 months, and is 16.5 percent above the July 2024 estimate of 7.9 months."

Sales were above expectations of 630 thousand SAAR and sales for the three previous months were revised up. I'll have more later today.