by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2023 05:01:00 PM

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for June: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End First-Half 2023 on Solid Note as June, Q2 Record Double-Digit Growth (pay site).

With second-quarter results finishing 18% above the same period last year, first-half 2023 volume totaled 7.66 million units, a 13% increase on January-June 2022. Sales are forecast to rise 11% year-over-year to 7.72 million units in the second half, and Wards Intelligence partner GlobalData is pegging entire-2023 at 15.4 million units.

Wards Auto estimates sales of 15.68 million SAAR in June 2023 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 4.2% from the May sales rate, and up 20.2% from May 2022. 

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for June (red).

The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.  After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic).  However, sales decreased in 2021 due to supply issues.  The "supply chain bottom" was in September 2021.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing.  This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and have picked up recently.

Sales in June were above the consensus forecast.