by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2023 02:00:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June

A brief excerpt:

Each month I track closed sales, new listings and active inventory in a sample of local markets around the country (over 40 local housing markets) in the US to get an early sense of changes in the housing market. In addition, we can look for regional differences. For example, listings in Texas and Florida are up more than in most other areas, and sales are down less year-over-year.

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR (and I’m frequently adding more markets). This is the final look at local markets in June.

The big story for June existing home sales was the large year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Also new listings were down sharply YoY and active listings are now down YoY.
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In June, sales in these markets were down 16.7%. In May, these same markets were down 17.4% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
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My early expectation is we will see a somewhat lower level of sales in July on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) than in June. 30-year mortgage rates averaged about 6.4% in April and May (for closed sales in June), and 30-year rates increased to 6.7% in June (closed sales in July will be mostly for contracts signed in May and June).

More local data coming in August for activity in July!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/