by Calculated Risk on 6/01/2023 09:00:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.2% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 8.3% below recent peak

Excerpt:

It has been 17 years since the bubble peak. In the February Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 62% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 11% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).  The composite 20, in real terms, is at the bubble peak.

The inflation adjusted indexes increased in real terms in March using CPI ex-shelter. CPI less shelter has only increased at a 1.1% annual rate over the last six months, and that has kept real prices from falling even faster.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be $340,000 today adjusted for inflation (70% increase).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index.

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