In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Key Measures Show Inflation Picked Up Slightly on YoY Basis in November

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2018 11:10:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (4.1% annualized rate) in November. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.3% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers was unchanged (0.2% annualized rate) in November. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% (2.5% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for November here. Motor fuel was down 40% annualized in November.

Inflation Measures Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.8%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.2%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.2%. Core PCE is for October and increased 1.8% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 4.1% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 2.3% annualized, and core CPI was at 2.5% annualized.

Using these measures, inflation picked up slightly on a year-over-year basis in November. Overall, these measures are at or above the Fed's 2% target (Core PCE is below 2%).