Friday, June 08, 2018

Q2 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 6/08/2018 01:19:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

Better than expected trade data nudged up 2Q GDP tracking to 3.8% qoq saar [June 8 estimate].
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.5 percent on June 6, down from 4.8 percent on June 1. [June 8 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.1% for 2018:Q2 and 2.9% for 2018:Q3. [June 8 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real annualized GDP in the 3% to 4.5% range in Q2.