Friday, April 20, 2018

Four Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

by Bill McBride on 4/20/2018 01:57:00 PM

The advance Q1 GDP report will be released next Friday, April 27th.   The consensus is for real GDP growth of 2.1% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis.

Here are four Q1 GDP forecast.

From Merrill Lynch:

We expect real GDP growth to slow to 1.7% qoq saar in the advance 1Q report [April 20 estimate].
From Nomura:
We expect the first reading of Q1 real GDP growth to come in at 1.6% q-o-q saar [April 20 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 2.0 percent on April 17, up from 1.9 percent on April 16. [April 17 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.9% for 2018:Q1 and 3.0% for 2018:Q2. [April 20 estimate]
CR Note: It looks like another quarter around 2% or so, although there might still be some residual seasonality in the first quarter.