Saturday, March 31, 2018

Schedule for Week of Apr 1, 2018

by Bill McBride on 3/31/2018 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the March employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the February Trade deficit, March ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, March auto sales, and the March ADP employment report.

Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, will speak on the Economic Outlook on Friday.

----- Monday, Apr 2nd -----

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 60.0, down from 60.8 in February.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 60.8% in February, the employment index was at 59.7%, and the new orders index was at 64.2%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.

----- Tuesday, Apr 3rd -----

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.0 million SAAR in March, down from 17.1 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the February sales rate.

10:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for February.

----- Wednesday, Apr 4th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 180,000 payroll jobs added in March, down from 235,000 added in February.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for index to decrease to 59.0 from 59.5 in February.

----- Thursday, Apr 5th -----

8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 226 thousand initial claims, up from 215 thousand the previous week.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through December. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $56.8 billion in February from $56.8 billion in January.

----- Friday, Apr 6th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for March. The consensus is for an increase of 167,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in March, down from the 313,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in February.

Year-over-year change employmentThe consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.0%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In February the year-over-year change was 2.281 million jobs.

A key will be the change in wages.

1:30 PM: Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for consumer credit to increase $15.0 billion in February.